By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS® Chief Economist
Even as more homes are on the market, Miami Dade County’s housing market remains undersupplied in many municipalities, with 73% having less than 6 month’s supply of single-family homes and 79% with less than 6 month’s supply of condos/townhomes. In the luxury coastal markets, the level of supply is still below pre-pandemic levels.
I expect that given the tight supply conditions, along with Miami-Dade’s strong job growth and its desirability as a vacation/retirement/work-from-home haven, home values in Miami-Dade County are more likely to remain stable or increase at a single-digit pace rather than to decline.
76% of municipalities have less than 6 month’s supply of single-family homes
In the single-family homes market, 76% of municipalities have less than six month’s supply (in 25 of 33 municipalities with available statistics). The largest cities all have below 6 month’s supply although the city of Miami has nearly 6 months: Hialeah (2.6), Doral (5.1), Homestead (2.6), Coral Gables (4.9), Miami (5.9). To note, while supply has increased, supply is still tighter compared to January 2020, such as in the city of Miami which had 7.2 months’ supply in January 2020.
Most luxury coastal markets can be considered to be in a balanced state, with 6 to 9 months’ supply: Key Biscayne (6.3), North Bay Village (6.4), Aventura (6.9), and Surfside (8.1).
Month’s supply is over 9 months in some markets, but the levels are not unusually high relative to pre-pandemic levels: Miami Beach (11.2), Bal Harbour (18), Sunny Isles (27.6), and Golden Beach (31.2). In January 2020, months’ supply was over 12 months in Miami Beach (25.5), Sunny Isles (31.7), Surfside (12.7), and Key Biscayne (42.9). Luxury properties tend to stay longer on the market, particularly the upper tier luxury market (above $2 million).
Use this data visualization to see the month’s supply trends for single-family homes in your city:
Larger price discounts in luxury coastal markets coastal markets
Sellers have been more willing to offer price discounts to close a sale. As of January 2020, the average price discount in Miami-Dade County was 5%, in line with historical levels. In the city of Miami, the typical price discount for single-family homes was about 7%. Buyers lost their negotiating power in 2020-2021 when price discounts evaporated amid extreme buyer competition.
However, price discounts for single-family homes are higher in luxury coastal markets: Surfside at 12%; Miami Beach at 15%; Key Biscayne, Bal Harbour, and Aventura each at about 20%.
In the condos/townhomes market where there is less supply buildup, the price discounts for condos/townhomes in luxury coastal markets has not exceeded 10% except in Key Biscayne (17%): Miami Beach (6%), Surfside (7%), and Sunny Isles (7%).
Use this data visualization to see the month’s supply trends for single-family homes in your city:
