By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld Chief Economist
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- Out-of-state driver license exchanges in South Florida rose 16% in the first half of 2026.
- New York (+9%), New Jersey (+8%), and California (+16%) were the top states of origin of movers, with driver licenses up in the first half of 2026 from one year ago.
- The growing tax policy divide with a potential 5% tax on net worth in California and the new surcharge on pied-a-terre or second homes in New York City could heighten out-of-state migration into South Florida.
Download the 2026 Q2 South Florida Driver License Exchanges Report HERE.
Out-of-state driver license exchanges rose 16% in the first half of 2026
Out-of-state migration into South Florida is rising again in 2026 based on driver license exchanges data. In the first half of 2026, out-of-state driver license exchanges in South Florida counties rose 16% from one year ago to 39,698, according to MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld analysis of driver license exchanges data obtained from the Florida Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles. New residents must exchange their out-of-state license for a Florida driver’s license within 30 days after establishing residency to drive on Florida’s roads.
Across Florida, out-of-state driver license exchanges rose just 3% in the first half compared to the level in the same period one year ago. Miami-Dade County led in driver license exchanges (12,769), followed by Palm Beach County (12,338), and Hillsborough County (11,715).
New York, New Jersey, and California are top movers
New York, New Jersey, and California were the top states of origin of driver license exchanges in the first half of 2026, accounting for 38% of driver license exchanges in the South Florida counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, and St. Lucie. Driver license exchanges rose in these feeder states compared to the level in the first half of 2025: New York (+9%), New Jersey (+8%), California (+16%). In fact, out-of-state driver license exchanges increased across 45 states and the District of Columbia.
In Miami-Dade County, out-of-state driver license exchanges rose at a year-over-year pace of 20% in the first half of 2026, with 12,769 driver license exchanges, the highest level among Florida’s counties. Driver license exchanges rose from one year ago among the largest feeder states: New York (+5%), California (+24%), Texas (+27%), New Jersey (+5%), and Georgia (+52%).
In Broward County, out-of-state driver license exchanges rose 23%, with 10,334 driver license exchanges. Driver license exchanges also rose at double-digit pace among the largest states of origin: New York (+12%), New Jersey (+17%), California (+19%), Texas (+30%), and Georgia (+28%).
In Palm Beach County, out-of-state driver license exchanges rose 14%, with 12,338 driver license exchanges. Driver license exchanges rose in the largest states of origin: New York (+11), New Jersey (+5%), Pennsylvania (+8%), California (8%), and Massachusetts (6%).
In Martin County, out-of-state driver license exchanges decreased 3% to 1,224 driver license exchanges.
In St. Lucie County, out-of-state driver license exchanges were also down 4% to 3,033 driver license exchanges.
Growing tax policy divide could increase out-of-state migration into South Florida
A growing tax policy divide between Florida and high-tax states like New York and California could increase out-of-state migration into South Florida.
In New York, Governor Hochul signed into law on May 28, 2026 a pied-a-terre surcharge. In Phase 1 during July 1, 2026-June 30, 2028, non-primary residence condos/coops with assessed value at $1 million or more will have a surcharge from 4% to 6.5% while 1-3 family homes with assessed value of $5 million or more will have a surcharge from 0.8% to 1.3%. Homes leased for a term of 1 year or more are exempted. There are anecdotal reports of buyers pulling back on purchasing NYC homes or selling second homes. See new york pied-a-terre tax impact on outmigration – Search. In California, the one-time 5% tax on net worth that affects 200 billionaires with a California residence as of January 1, 2026, will be in the November ballot for voter approval. The one-time tax has prompted billionaires like Larry Page, Sergei Brin, Mark Zuckerberg, and Peter Thiel to move out of California to South Florida. The expectation that this tax could just be the first tax on high-earners and on wealth could continue to induce outmigration. See A billionaire tax is on the ballot in California. How could that affect Miami? – AOL
While taxes are rising in New York and California, property taxes on primary residence homes could decline in Florida should the “Save our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes” bill pass voter approval in the November ballot. The bill increases the homestead exemption for non-school taxes from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and to $250,000 in 2028 Florida Property Tax Elimination: DeSantis Plan 2026
