By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld Chief Economist
Key Takeaways:
- Mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated in 2026 , with mortgage rates pushing to 6.7% by year -end , with a potential rate hike.
- Amid elevated mortgage rates, South Florida’s single-family home sales will rise at a modest pace of below 3% to 4%, driven by high-tier buyers.
- Home prices will continue to rise at modest pace of below 2% to 3% amid declining inventory.
Download the 2026-2027 South Florida Outlook HERE.
- Mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated in 2026 , with mortgage rates pushing to 6.7% by year -end , with a potential rate hike.
The June 2026 Outlook is based on a scenario of a continued easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the US and Iran continue to engage in negotiations to craft a peace deal to end the conflict.
The surge in oil prices has led to a surge in the annual rate of inflation to 3.8% as of April (for both the CPI and PCE indices
With inflation trending above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target, MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld projects that the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.0% in the last quarter (October meeting), with another rate hike at the March 2027 meeting. Traders of the 30-day Fed Funds future prices are already baking in these rate cuts.3
Elevated inflation and a projected rate hike that is already being baked in by bond traders could push the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.7% by the end of December 2026. However, as inflation decelerates in 2026, the 10-year Treasury note will also climb down to 4.4%, which will also bring down the 30-year mortgage rate to 6.4% by year-end.
Amid elevated mortgage rates, MIAMI Realtors®+RWorld projects South Florida’s existing home sales to increase 3% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, following four years of decline.
- Amid elevated mortgage rates, South Florida’s single-family home sales will rise at a modest pace of below 3% to 4%, driven by high-tier buyers.
In the single-family market, existing home sales are projected to increase by 3.3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027 after sales inched up 0.2% in 2025. In the condominium and townhome market, sales are also projected to increase for the first time after four years of decline, up 2.5% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
High-end buyers are a key market driver in South Florida’s real estate market. In the single-family market, year-to-date sales as of April rose 6.9% while million-dollar sales rose 17.7%. In the condominium/townhome market, year-to-date sales rose 4.7% while million-dollar sales rose 23.4%. Year-to-date, million-dollar home sales (single-family, condos/townhomes) accounted for 22% of sales compared to roughly 10% nationally.
South Florida’s high-end buyers are a mix of retirees, out-of-state job switchers, employed workers in higher-paying industries, and millionaires and billionaires from high-tax states.
In 2025, out-of-state job switchers had higher wages in the destination job in the Miami Metro Area than in-state job switchers, led by job switchers from Illinois ($172,632), New York ($164,480), and Washington ($164,144). See New York, Texas, and California: Top States Switching Jobs to South Florida – MIAMI REALTORS® + Rworld
South Florida is also creating more higher-earning jobs in the professional and business services and in financial activities industries where average wages are higher. See Miami Ranks No. 1 for Private Employment Growth in Florida – MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld
South Florida’s business friendly environment continues to attract corporate relocations and expansions, such as Amazon, ServiceNow, and Iru. Palm Beach and Miami-Dade County have the lowest office vacancy rate among the nation’s major commercial real estate markets. See South Florida Office Market Ranks No. 1 in Construction Intensity and Leads U.S. in Tight Vacancy – MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld
- Home prices will continue to rise at modest pace of below 2% to 3% amid declining inventory.
In the single-family market, declining inventory will tend to support prices, but homebuyer affordability will moderate the appreciation to below 2% in 2026 and 3% in 2027.
On the one hand, the declining inventory of homes on the market will put upward pressure on prices. As of April 2026, active inventory was below 6 months’ supply in the five counties. MIAMI Realtors® + RWorld projects that months’ supply will continue to decline to 4.6 months in 2026 and to 4.2 months in 2027 with rising mortgage rates in 2026 deterring homeowners from trading their home and existing mortgage for one with a higher rate.
On the other hand, affordability conditions will tend to lead to a modest price appreciation. Based on the average weekly wage in the Miami Metro Area, a 2-earner household can pay the mortgage on a $420,000 without being unduly burdened (the mortgage payment is 25% of income). In comparison, the single-family sales price in South Florida in 2026 is estimated at $612,900, with about 4% of renter households being able to afford this price.
In the condominium/townhome market, the median sales prices will continue to decline in 2026 by 0.4% and to turn around 1.3% in 2027. Prices will continue to decline modestly in 2026 with active inventory at 10.4 months’ supply, which is characteristic of a buyer’s market. Active inventory is projected to modestly decline to 10 months’ supply in 2027, resulting in a modest price growth of 1.3%.
- Hot Markets in 2026
Based on data as of April 2026, MIAMI REALTORS® + Rworld identified 17 affordable and 34 high-tier hot markets. Affordable markets habe a median single-family sales price of $500,000 or below as of April 2026 while high-tier markets have a price above $500,000. A hot market is one that has 6 month’s supply or less. These markets are like to see rising prices, stiff buyer competition, and faster time on market in 2026.
Affordable hot markets include Miami Gardens, Tamarac, West Park, Lauderhill, Sunrise, Belle Glade, Riviera Beach, Lake Worth Beach, Boyton Beach, Port Salerno, and White City.
Million-dollar hot markets are Coral Gables, South Miami, Miami Shores, Doral, Parkland, North Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Palm Beach Gardens, Jupiter, Sewall’s Point
