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Miami Real Estate Posts 7th-Best March in County History; Total Sales Surge Ahead of Pre-Pandemic Levels

Miami Pending Sales and Showing Appointments Rise for Third Consecutive Month
Miami Pending Sales and Showing Appointments Rise for Third Consecutive Month

MIAMI — Miami-Dade County posted its seventh-best March sales month in county history as total sales surged ahead of pre-pandemic numbers and Miami price appreciation led the nation, according to March 2023 statistics released by the MIAMI Association of Realtors (MIAMI) and the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) system.

 

Fueled by high migration, a strong jobs market and a high percentage of cash buyers, Miami real estate continues to outperform the nation. Miami boasts the strongest annual home-price growth of any U.S. city, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. And in March 2023, Miami-Dade total median prices increased for the 136th consecutive month (11.3 years) while national prices decreased for the second straight month.

 

“Out-of-state homebuyers from high-density, high-taxed states continue migrating to Miami as new state data shows surging driver-license exchanges to Miami-Dade from California, New York and New Jersey,” MIAMI Chairman of the Board Ines Hegedus-Garcia said. “Domestic and global buyers and companies are migrating here not just because of our low taxes. They are moving here because of Miami’s emergence as a FinTech hub, pro-business government, world-renown arts scene and more.”

 

7th-Best March Sales Month in Miami-Dade County History

Miami sold 2,513 total homes in March 2023, which is the seventh-most all-time in the month of March in county history. March 2023 total sales are up 8.6% from pre-pandemic March 2019, which had 2,313 transactions. March 2023 total sales are also higher than the Miami-Dade average number of sales in the month of March all-time.

 

Comparisons to pre-pandemic are better comps as 2021 and 2022 sales surged to record highs due to pandemic-fueled homebuying, historic low 2% mortgage rates and other factors.

 

The 3,939 sales in March 2022 were the third most sales in any month in Miami-Dade history. Miami total home sales decreased 36.2% year-over-year in March 2023, from a historic 3,939 transactions in March 2022 to 2,513 in March 2023.

 

Single-family home sales decreased 22.5% year-over-year, from 1,411 in March 2022 to 1,093 in March 2023 because of its comparison to a historic March 2022 and the current market has lower inventory in specific price points and higher rates. In comparison to pre-pandemic March 2019, Miami March 2023 single-family sales are up 0.9%.

 

Miami March 2023 condo sales also increased vs. March 2019, but are down in comparison to last year. Miami existing condo sales decreased 43.8% year-over-year, from a historic 2,528 in March 2022 to 1,420 in March 2023, due to lack of inventory and rising mortgage rates. In comparison to pre-pandemic March 2019, however, March 2023 sales increased 15.4%, from 1,230 to 1,420.

 

Miami Pending Sales and Showing Appointments Rise for Third Consecutive Month

Total pending sales rose 10% month-over-month, from 2,674 in February 2023 to 2,929 in March 2023. Pending sales are an indicator of future sales, but it takes up to 40 days for pending transactions to close and not all pending sales end in deals.

 

Showing appointments in the Southeast Florida MLS, which is owned by MIAMI REALTORS®, increased 14% month over month to 270,143 showings in March.

 

Home sales are sensitive to mortgage rate changes and homebuyers are taking advantage of any rate declines. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.27% as of April 13. That’s down from 6.28% from the previous week but up from 5% one year ago.

 

Miami Home Prices, Household Income Rise with Wealth Migration

Miami-Dade County single-family home median prices increased 5.6% year-over-year in March 2023, increasing from $540,000 to $570,000. Miami single-family median prices have risen for 136 consecutive months (11.3 years), the longest running-streak on record. Existing condo median prices stayed even year-over-year at $400,000. Condo median prices have increased in 136 of the last 142 months.

 

Home prices are determined by supply and demand. Lower supply and higher demand create higher prices. Inventory for Miami single-family homes (3.5 months) and condos (4.7 months) are low. Also, one of the supports for home prices is rents and rents are up.

 

While local median prices have increased so have local household incomes. Florida ranked No. 1 in the U.S. in largest net gain of adjusted gross income (AGI) due to domestic migration, gaining $23.7 billion, according to most recent IRS-SOI migration data. Miami-Dade’s out-of-state homebuyers with a mortgage earn nearly $100,000 in median household income.

 

Miami’s job market, which has the lowest unemployment rate (2.2%) in the U.S., gained more than 60 companies in 2021-22, according to the Beacon Council. Global FinTech powerhouses such as Citadel, Blackstone, Microsoft, etc. have opened offices/headquarters in South Florida.

 

“What’s been mainly driving South Florida’s housing market are the job growth and sustained in-migration into the area, particularly from higher-tax states like New York, New Jersey, and California, which has been experiencing a layoff of tech workers,” MIAMI REALTORS® Chief Economist Gay Cororaton said.

 

Out-of-state driver license exchanges to Miami-Dade from California, New York and New Jersey continue to be up in comparison to pre-pandemic, according to 1Q 2023 data from the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Vehicles. California out-of-state driver license exchanges to Miami are up 80%; New York to Miami is up 67%; and New Jersey to Miami is up 29%.

 

Miami-Dade Active Listings Still Near Historical Lows; More Supply Needed

The average year-end Miami annual active inventory since 2008 is 19,537 and active listings at the end of 2022 totaled 10,730. Miami active listings are down 48.7% versus pre-pandemic (year-end 2022 vs. year-end 2019).

 

Total active listings at the end of March 2023 increased 36.2% year-over-year, from 7,040 to 9,818.

 

Inventory of single-family homes increased 49.6% year-over-year in March 2023 from 2,205 active listings last year to 3,299 last month. Condominium inventory increased 34.8% year-over-year to 6,519 from 4,835 listings during the same period in 2022.

 

New listings of Miami single-family homes decreased 23.5% to 1,325 from 1,732 year-over-year. New listings of condominiums decreased 19.6%, from 2,585 to 2,078 year-over-year.

 

Months’ supply of inventory for single-family homes increased 105.9% to 3.5 months year-over-year, which indicates a seller’s market. Inventory for existing condominiums increased 104.3% to 4.7 months, which also indicates a seller’s market. A balanced market between buyers and sellers offers between six- and nine-months supply.

 

Nationally, total housing inventory at the end of March was 980,000 units, up 1.0% from February and 5.4% from one year ago (930,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from February but up from 2.0 months in March 2022.

 

Miami Real Estate Posts $282.7 Million Local Economic Impact in March 2023
Every time a home is sold it impacts the economy: income generated from real estate industries (commissions, fees and moving expenses), expenditures related to home purchase (furniture and remodeling expenses), multiplier of housing related expenditures (income earned as a result of a home sale is re-circulated into the economy) and new construction (additional home sales induce added home production).

 

The total economic impact of a typical Florida home sale is $112,500, according to NAR. Miami-Dade sold 2,513 homes in March 2023 and had a local economic impact of $282.7 million.

 

Miami total dollar volume totaled $2.1 billion in March 2023. Single-family home dollar volume decreased 30.7% year-over-year to $992.6 million. Condo dollar volume decreased 44.13% year-over-year to $1.1 billion.

 

Miami Distressed Sales Remain Low, Reflecting Healthy Market
Only 1.2% of all closed residential sales in Miami were distressed last month, including REO (bank-owned properties) and short sales, compared to 1.3% in March 2022. In 2009, distressed sales comprised 70% of Miami sales.

 

Short sales and REOs accounted for 0.2% and 0.9% year-over-year, respectively, of total Miami sales in March 2023.

 

Miami’s percentage of distressed sales are on par with the national figure. Nationally, distressed sales represented approximately 1% of sales in March, nearly identical to last month and one year ago.

 

Miami Median Price Appreciation Outperforming Nation, State

In Florida, closed sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 26,161 in March 2023, down 15% year-over-year, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 11,188, down 23.5%. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

 

Nationally, total existing-home sales transactions fell 2.4% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million in March. Year-over-year, sales waned 22.0% (down from 5.69 million in March 2022).

 

The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes was $405,000, up 2.1% from the previous year, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Last month’s statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $320,000, up 3.9% over the year-ago figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

 

Nationally, the median existing-home price for housing types in March was $375,700, a decline of 0.9% from March 2022 ($379,300). Prices climbed slightly in three regions but dropped in the West.

 

Miami Real Estate Attracting Near List Price
The median percent of original list price received for single-family homes was 95.7% in March 2023, down from 100% last year. The median percent of original list price received for existing condominiums was 96%, down from 98.6% last year.

 

The median number of days between listing and contract dates for Miami single-family home sales was 35 days, up from 18 days last year. The median time to sale for single-family homes was 73 days, up from 61 days last year.

 

The median number of days between the listing date and contract date for condos was 37 days, up from 31 days. The median number of days to sale for condos was 76 days, down from 73 days.

 

Miami Cash Sales 50.7% More than National Figure
Cash sales represented 40.7% of Miami closed sales in March 2023, compared to 43.5% in March 2022. About 27% of U.S. home sales are made in cash, according to the latest NAR statistics.

 

Cash buyers are not deterred by rising rates. The high percentage of cash buyers reflects Miami’s top position as the preeminent American real estate market for foreign buyers, who tend to purchase with all cash as well as some moving from more expensive U.S. markets who can buy more with their profits from real estate sales.

 

Cash sales accounted for 53.7% of all Miami existing condo sales and 23.8% of single-family transactions.

 

To access March 2023 Miami-Dade Statistical Reports, visit http://www.SFMarketIntel.com

 

Note: Statistics in this news release may vary depending on reporting dates. MIAMI reports exact statistics directly from its MLS system.

 

About the MIAMI Association of Realtors®

The MIAMI Association of Realtors (MIAMI) was chartered by the National Association of Realtors in 1920 and is celebrating 103 years of service to Realtors, the buying and selling public, and the communities in South Florida. Comprised of six organizations: MIAMI RESIDENTIAL, MIAMI COMMERCIAL; BROWARD-MIAMI, a division of MIAMI Realtors; JTHS-MIAMI, a division of MIAMI Realtors in the Jupiter-Tequesta-Hobe Sound area; MIAMI YPN, our Young Professionals Network Council; and the award-winning MIAMI Global Council. MIAMI REALTORS represents nearly 60,000 total real estate professionals in all aspects of real estate sales, marketing, and brokerage. It is the largest local Realtor association in the U.S. and has official partnerships with 246 international organizations worldwide. MIAMI has been selected to host the prestigious FIABCI World Congress on June 5-9, 2023. MIAMI’s official website is www.miamirealtors.com

 

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