By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld Chief Economist
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Miami ranks second among 23 global cities in affordability, with home prices equal to five years of a skilled worker’s wages compared to 15 years in Hong Kong, the most expensive city.
- Miami ranks third globally when it comes to rental investability, with a 16-year payback period based on average rents, compared to 45 years in Zurich, the most expensive city.
- A broad price decline is unlikely, based on recent data showing strong wage growth, an acceleration in migration from high-tax states and high-wage earners moving to the area, tightening inventory, and continued stabilization in the condo market.
Read the analysis HERE.
Miami is the second most affordable city among 23 global cities, according to the 2026 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index. According to the report, it roughly takes about 5 years of wages of a skilled service worker to purchase a 650 square feet apartment. Meanwhile in New York, it takes about 7 years of wages. The least expensive is Toronto, which takes about 4 years of wages. The most expensive is Hong Kong where it takes about 15 years of wages.
Investing in a rental apartment also yields returns more quickly in Miami, putting the city at third spot compared to 23 global cities. According to the UBS report, it takes about 16 years to rent a 650 square feet apartment to fully pay for the apartment. In New York, it takes about 18 years. The fastest time is in Sao Palo where it takes about 15 years, while the most expensive is Zurich where it takes about 45 years.
Despite the positive metrics, the UBS report ranked Miami with elevated risk of a price correction at #3 out of 23 cities, compared to Los Angeles at #10, New York at #21, and San Francisco at #22.
The report noted that, “Nevertheless, a broad-based price correction appears unlikely in the near term. Continued demand from buyers relocating from higher-cost and higher-tax states continues to support housing values. The luxury segment remains particularly resilient, supported by Miami’s high share of cash transactions, which reduces the segment’s sensitivity to financing costs.“
MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld assessment is that a broad price decline is unlikely. Miami combines competitive global affordability with demand and inventory fundamentals that support continued price gains.
A broad price decline is unlikely based on four signals: 1) recent wage growth that is outpacing modest price appreciation; 2) acceleration in migration, particularly from high-tax states and higher-wage workers; 3) tightening inventory conditions and stabilization in the condo market.
- South Florida’s wages are starting to rise faster than prices.
The average weekly wage rose at an annual pace of 5.2% in the Miami MSA over the period August 2019- August 2022, outpacing the national increase (4.9%). Wage growth slowed during 2022-2024 to 0.9%, trending below the national pace (3.9%), as interest rates rose and out-of-state migration normalized, but average wage growth has picked up to an annual pace of 10.0% from August 2024 through August 2026, surpassing the national pace (4.6%).
More high-wage earners moving from out-of-state to the Miami metro has bolstered wages, with the Miami Metro area attracting 55,300 jobs from other states, led by health care and professional and technical services. The average wage of a worker who switched job from out-of-state is $140,000 compared to $61,000 for an in-state mover, and higher-income workers are naturally purchasing higher-priced homes suitable to their buying power and lifestyle. MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld)
- South Florida’s larger pool of affluent and cash buyers is bolstering demand and resilience amid elevated mortgage rates.
The growing tax policy divide between Florida and high tax states (e.g. New York’s pied-a-terre tax through 2028, California’s one time 5% billionaire wealth tax, Washington’s annual 9.9% millionaire income tax) will continue to drive the wealth migration of affluent buyers and corporate and job relocation in high-wage industries such as healthcare, professional and business services, and finance into South Florida.
Institutional investors remain confident about South Florida’s strength, with several big- name companies establishing or expanding their footprint. Wells Fargo established its wealth management HQ in Palm Beach, Google expanded its footprint in Miami. Tech companies IRU and ServiceNow relocated their headquarters in South Florida. South Florida Office Rents Top New York as Demand Surges – MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld
After normalizing beginning in 2022 from a COVID-induced surge, out-of-state driver license exchanges in South Florida rose 16% in the first half of 2026, with the largest inflow from high-tax states: New York (+9%), New Jersey (+8%), and California (+16%). More New Yorkers and Californians are Moving to South Florida in 2026 Based on Driver License Exchanges – MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld.
The share of million-dollar home sales has steadily increased led by Palm Beach County (30%), followed by Miami-Dade County ( 28%), Martin County (21%), Broward County (21%), and St. Lucie County (2%). Nationally, million-dollar sales account for less than 10% of sales. Year-to-date million-dollar single-family sales rose 23.3% while year-to-date condo/townhome sales rose 17.6%. Year-to-date closed sales of $10 million and over homes rose to the second highest level in years at 371. Among million-dollar sales, 60 are all-cash, rising to 86% all-cash sales share among $10 million and over sales. South Florida Housing Market Shows Continued Strength as Luxury Sales Surge – MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld
- Tightening inventory conditions and stabilization in the condo market will bolster sustained but modest price appreciation in 2026-2027.
Median single-family sales prices are projected to increase about 5% in 2026 and 6% in 2027 as inventory continues to tighten due to the mortgage rate lock-in effect, with mortgage rates likely to average at 6.5% in 2027. As of August 2026, the median single-family sales prices are up year-over-year in Miami-Dade County(+3.8%), Broward County (+4.0%), Palm Beach County (+3.2%), Martin County (+12.8%), and St. Lucie County (+0.6%). South Florida Housing Market Shows Continued Strength as Luxury Sales Surge – MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld
Active inventory of single-family homes has tightened, down 20% year-over-year, in part due to the mortgage rate lock-in effect. MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld projects South Florida’ market to shift in favor of sellers, with month’s supply of single-family homes declining to to 4.1 months’ supply in 2026 and 3.6 months’ supply in 2027.
In the condominium/townhome market, the median sales prices are projected to increase 2.5% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027 amid continuing stabilization. As of August, the median sales price decreased just slightly from one year ago in Miami-Dade County (-0.5%) and rose in Broward County (4.0%), Palm Beach County (+5.3%), Martin County (20.7%), and St. Lucie County (7.2%).
Active inventory has also declined, down 15% year-over-year across the South Florida’s five counties. MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld projects months’ supply to continue to tighten in 2026 to 9 months’ supply and to further decline to 8.2 months’ supply in 2027.
MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld anticipates continued stabilization in condominium and townhome prices as increased transparency and access to critical property documents (e.g., milestone inspection reports, structural integrity reserve studies, meeting minutes) mandated by the new condominium regulations (HB 1021) help buyers make well-informed decisions.
