By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld Chief Economist
Key Takeaways
- As mortgage rates continued to creep up to 6.7% in August, home sales declined 2.8% from one year ago for the first time after 11 months of year-over-year increase. Year-to-date, sales are up 7.5% from one year ago.
- While sales fell overall, million-dollar sales in August rose 12.8% from one year ago, with year-to-date sales up 21.7%.
- Prices rose to their highest August levels for single-family homes while condo prices rose in 50% of localities.
Download the August 2026 South Florida Housing Market Report HERE.
Million-dollar sales continued to outperform the overall market, with sales up 21.7% year-to-date through August and 12.8% for the month of August.
Million-dollar home sales continue to make up a higher share of sales, led by Palm Beach County (30%), followed by Miami-Dade County ( 28%), Martin County (21%), and Broward County (21%), based on year-to-date sales. In St. Lucie County, the share is small but growing (2%).
Cash sales account for over half of million-dollar segment, which makes this segment more resilient to rising mortgage rates. Year-to-date, 60% of South Florida’s million-dollar sales are all-cash compared to 42% for all sales.
Year-to-date closed sales of $10 million and over homes totaled 371 and will surpass last year’s total sales (378) and will be the second highest level in years (highest level was in 2021 with 436 sales). Cash sales accounted for 86% of $10 million or more sales.
A resurgence in out-of-state movers from high-tax states is accelerating migration into South Florida. More New Yorkers and Californians are Moving to South Florida in 2026 Based on Driver License Exchanges – MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld. Out-of-state job movers who moved to the Miami MSA have higher average wages at $140,000 compared to $61,000 among in-state job movers. Miami Job Migration Generates $3.6 Billion in Net Wage Gains – MIAMI REALTORS® + RWorld
Amid rising mortgage rates, South Florida August sales declined 2.8% in August but are up 7.5% year-to-date.
South Florida’s closed sales of single-family and condominium/townhome sales decreased 2.8% year-over-year after 11 months of increase. Sales finally slowed down as higher mortgage rates that rose to 6.7% in August reined in sales. Pending single-family sales also decreased 1.8% year-over-year.
Sales declined in most counties: Miami-Dade County ( -3.1%), Broward County (0.1%), Palm Beach County (-2.0%), Martin County (-11.3%), and St. Lucie County (-6.5%).
A slight majority, or 56% of 158 localities, saw higher sales in August year-over-year that included Miami (+13%) Fort Lauderdale (+6%), West Palm Beach (+15%), Hobe Sound (+41%) and Fort Pierce (+14%). However, sales were flat from one year ago in Palm City (0%) and down in Port St. Lucie (-6.0% ).
In the condominiums/townhomes market, August sales decreased 5.7% from one year ago. Condominium/townhome sales rose from one year ago in Miami-Dade County ( +0.9%) but declined in Broward County (-9.3%), Palm Beach County (-6.7%), Martin County (-22.8%), and St. Lucie County (-9.5%). Pending condominium/townhome sales decreased 1.9% year-over-year. On top of higher mortgage rates, condominium/townhome buyers are also facing added costs from higher condominium fees and special assessments to fund building maintenance and structural repairs.
Condominium/townhome sales rose from one year ago in 50% of 119 localities that included Miami (+11%), Hollywood (+23%), West Palm Beach (+21%), Palm City (+100%), and Hutchinson Island South (+100%). However, sales were down year-over-year in Miami Beach ( -15%), Fort Lauderdale (-23%), Stuart (-11%), and Port St. Lucie (-46%).
Outlook: Sales could increase as buyers as buyers lock in on rates before rising further in 2027
Mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated at over 6.75% for the rest of the year with the Fed expected to raise interest rates to bring down inflation and with oil prices remaining volatile and rising to $105 per barrel as of September 15 as OPEC countries like Saudia Arabia and Libya cut back production due to difficulty transporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes.
With mortgage rates expected to increase in 2027, we could see buyers jumping in before mortgage rates hit higher in 2027. Buyers are likely to look for well-priced homes in affordable markets.
The million-dollar market that is less impacted by higher mortgage rates will likely continue to be the biggest sales driver, with retirees, job movers from high-tax states, and second home buyers making up the buyer pool.
