By MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist Gay Cororaton
Key Takeaways
- Homes that went under contract in March (pending sales), a leading indicator of closed sales, rose 9% year-over-year, the 8th consecutive month of y/y growth .
- Million- dollar pending sales rose at an even stronger pace of 24%, the 10th consecutive month of y/y growth.
- Supply conditions tightened, with 16% fewer new listings in March from one year ago and active listings down 12%, providing the support for sustained but modest price growth in most counties.
Download the 2026 Q1 South Florida Housing Market Report HERE.
South Florida’s housing market continues to buck national trends and lead the U.S. despite elevated mortgage rates in the wake of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. South Florida home sales continue to climb despite a decline in national transactions. As of the last week of March, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate had increased to 6.38% from an average of 6.1% in January 2026. Amid more challenging macroeconomic conditions, South Florida’s housing market remains resilient due to sustained wealth migration and a larger presence of upper-tier and cash buyers who are less sensitive to rising mortgage rates.
Pending sales rose nearly 9% year-over-year in March, the 8th month of consecutive year-over-year growth
To assess the impact of the geopolitical tensions on the housing market in March, sales that went into contract (pending sales) is a better measure of market activity since sales close 1-2 months after a sale goes into contract. Pending sales) in March rose 8.9% in South Florida’s five counties, the 8th month of consecutive year-over-year increases since August 2025. This indicates that South Florida’s housing market is holding up well to rising mortgage rates and elevated macroeconomic uncertainty.
Single-family home pending sales rose 10.0% year-over-year in March, the 8th month of consecutive year-over-year growth. Sales rose in most counties: Miami-Dade County ( (13.2%), Broward County (11.0%), Palm Beach County (9.6%), Martin County (35.3%), and St. Lucie County (-4.5%).
At the city level, pending sales rose in Miami (+3%), Miami Gardens (+22%), Fort Lauderdale (+7%), Hollywood (+31%), West Palm Beach (+51%) and Delray Beach (+27%).
Condominiums/townhomes pending sales rose 7.5% year-over-year in March, the 8th month of consecutive year-over-year increase. Sales rose in most counties: Miami-Dade County ( (13.5%), Broward County (0.6%), Palm Beach County (10.3%), Martin County (8.4%), and St. Lucie County (-2.9%).
At the city level, pending sales of condominium/townhomes rose in Miami (+5%), Miami Beach (+38%), Fort Lauderdale (+10%), Pompano Beach (+11%), West Palm Beach (+10%) and Boca Raton (+2%).
Million-dollar pending sales rose 24% year-over-year in March, the 10th month of consecutive year-over-year growth
Sales that went under contract (pending sales) in March rose across most price points, but the million-dollar market outperformed, with sales up 23.6% year-over-year.
Among million-dollar single-family homes, sales that went under contract rose 20.9% year-over-year, the 10th month of consecutive year-over-year growth. Sales rose double-digit in most counties: Miami-Dade County ( (29.5%), Broward County (24.9%), Palm Beach County (14.1%), Martin County (19.5%), and St. Lucie County (0.0%).
Among million-dollar condominiums/townhomes, sales that went under contract surged 30.2% year-over-year, the 10th month of consecutive year-over-year increase. Sales spiked up from one year ago most counties: Miami-Dade County ( (34.5%), Broward County (31.9%), Palm Beach County (27.1%), Martin County (-100.0%), and St. Lucie County (+400%).
Closed sales of homes $1 million or more rose to 3,382, up 22%. If this pace is sustained, the annualized closed sales (13,528) will surpass the full-year 2025 sales of 11,864 sales.
Closed sales of homes $5 million to less than $10 million or more rose to 256 sales in the first quarter, up 35% year-over-year. At this pace is sustained, the annualized level (1,024) will surpass the full-year 2025 sales of 795 properties.
Closed sales of $10 million and over homes rose 127 sales in the first quarter, up 13%. At this pace if sustained, the annualized level (508) will surpass the full-year 2025 sales of 378 sales properties.
Sustained wealth migration from out-of-state retirees, job switchers, and vacation homebuyers have been driving the demand for million-dollar homes.
Over the period 2019-2023, Florida gained a net inflow of $137 billion in income from out-of-state movers. Palm Beach County was the #1 county for wealth migration, with $22.5 billon of net income inflow and Miami-Dade was #4 with a net income inflow of $10.5 billion. Palm Beach County: #1 in the Nation in Net Inflow of Income from Domestic Migration Per Latest IRS Tax Data – MIAMI REALTORS®
In 2026 Q1, out-of-state driver license exchanges in the South Florida counties – an indicator of out-of-state migratoon – rose 24% from one year ago, with 19, 918 driver license exchanges overall. New York, California, and New Jersey were the top movers. Miami Sees Double-Digit Spike in Domestic Migration; New York, California, and Texas Lead Inflows – MIAMI REALTORS®
