By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist
Key Takeaways
- Amid rising macroeconomic risks and geopolitical uncertainty, commercial sales volume in the first quarter of 2026 Q1decreased 1% from one year ago to $2.86 billion.
- Palm Beach County bucked the decline with commercial sales volume up 80% to $650 million, while sales fell 13% in Miami-Dade County to $1.16 billion and fell 17% in Broward County to $920 million.
- The macroeconomic uncertainty has weighed on sales activity, but transactions are likely to rebound once the macroeconomic risks wind down given South Florida’s healthy commercial real estate demand-supply fundamentals and sustained wealth migration.
Download the 2026 Q1 South Florida Commercial Real Estate Report HERE.
With the Fed holding off on cutting interest rates at its January 2026 FOMC meeting as inflation resurged and with the US-Iran conflict further clouding up the macroeconomic outlook, South Florida commercial real estate sales activity decreased neglibly in the first quarter of 2026.
In South Florida, commercial sales volume in the first quarter fell 1% from one year ago to $2.86 billion. Sales had been rising in 2024 and 2025, hitting $15.2 billion, the second highest level since 2019 (peak was $15.9 billion in 2021).
Miami-Dade County Commercial Sales Volume Declined 13% to $1.16 Billion in 2026 Q1
Commercial sales volume in Miami-Dade County decreased 13% from one year ago to $1.16 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Only office sales increased (93%) while sales volume declined in multifamily (-55%), industrial (-2%), and retail (-16%). The large decline in multifamily sales from the same period last year was due to several deals of over $50 million last year. Despite the sales decline, Miami-Dade County’s commercial fundamentals are strong, with sales likely to turn around quickly as macroeconomic risks arising from geopolitical tensions subside. In full-year 2025, sales rose to the highest level in years to $7.1.
Broward County Commercial Sales Volume Decreased 16% to $930 Million in 2026 Q1
Commercial sales volume in Broward County decreased 16% from one year ago to $930 million. The decline was due to office (-79%) from last year’s sales that were bolstered by two deals of over $200 million each (401 E Las Olas and 350 E Las Olas). However, sales rose in multifamily (+10%), industrial (+2%), and retail (+17%), an indication that the commercial market remains fundamentally robust. Broward County’s more affordable residential and commercial prices and net migration from Miami-Dade are factors that underpin a long-term robust commercial market. Sales volume rebounded in 2024 and 2025, rising to $4.91 billion in 2025, up 25% year-over-year.
Palm Beach County Commercial Sales Rose 80% to $650 Million in 2026 Q1
Commercial sales volume in the first quarter of 2026 Q1 in Palm Beach County rose 80% year-over-year to $650 million. Sales volume rose at a robust pace across asset types: multifamily (+121%), office (+30%), industrial (+83%), and retail (+84%). Sales have been rising since 2025, with full-year sales in 2025 at $2.8 billion, up 13%.
South Florida’s Long-term Outlook is Positive Due to Strong Fundamentals
The macroeconomic uncertainty has weighed on sales activity, but transactions are likely to rebound once the macroeconomic risks wind down given South Florida’s healthy commercial real estate demand-supply fundamentals and sustained wealth migration.
Across property asset types in South Florida, asking rents are rising faster than nationally, vacancy rates are tighter than nationally, and development activity underway is more intense than nationally.
Out-of-state migration is rebounding, driven by retirees and corporate relocations, such as the recent relocations of ServiceNow and Palantir.
Driver license exchanges in South Florida were up 24% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, according to MIAMI Research . Miami Sees Double-Digit Spike in Domestic Migration; New York, California, and Texas Lead Inflows – MIAMI REALTORS®
In 2023, the state of Florida saw a net income inflow of $20.7 billion and a net inflow of $137 billion from 2019-2023, a trend that is likely to continue due to Florida’s tax competitiveness, with Palm Beach County as the #1 county for wealth migration, according to MIAMI Research of IRS data. Palm Beach County: #1 in the Nation in Net Inflow of Income from Domestic Migration Per Latest IRS Tax Data – MIAMI REALTORS®
