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Miami-Dade County’s Commercial Real Estate Market Rebounds in Q1 2024

MIAMI Commercal Economic Insights from the MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist
MIAMI Commercal Economic Insights from the MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist

By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist

Sales of core real estate assets (multifamily, office, industrial, retail) in Miami-Dade County rose 15% year-over-year to $880 million in the first quarter of 2024. This is a turnaround compared to the 52% decline in sales in the first quarter of 2023.

 

Acquisitions of retail properties topped the deals ($274 million, +172%), followed by industrial ($252 million, +19%) and office ($204 million, +6%). However, multifamily deals fell 42%.

 

Total commercial real estate sales fell 6% as sales of vacant residential land fell (-40%) as well as vacant commercial land (-24%), offsetting the growth in vacant industrial land sales (95%).

 

Commercial real estate sales have rebounded as Miami-Dade County continues to experience strong job growth,  an increase in population bolstered by elevated migration from out-of-state and international movers, and a rebound in travel and tourism. These factors have bolstered investor confidence amid a challenging economic environment marked by elevated borrowing costs, tighter lending conditions, and fears of a recession, though mild (‘soft landing’).

 

59% of Miami-Dade County’s municipalities saw an increase in commercial real estate sales volume in 2024 Q1

 

Of the 32 municipalities and the combined unincorporated areas of Miami-Dade, 59% saw an increase in commercial real estate sales in the first quarter of 2024 compared to one year ago.

 

In the city of Miami, retail and office transactions drove the increase. In Medley, Opa-locka, and Miami Gardens, industrial was the main driver. In Aventura and Miami Springs, retail was the source of the growth. In Florida City, vacant industrial land sales drove the increase. In Bay Harbor, vacant residential land pushed sales up. In Miami Lakes, the growth driver was office transactions.

 

The top markets by sales volume (whether sales rose or decreased)  were the unincorporated areas ($397 million), Miami ($367 million), Coral Gables (($92 million), Miami Beach ($67 million), Hialeah ($61 million), Doral ($55 million), and Medley ($53 million).

 

Retail CRE sales tripled in 2024 Q1, the strongest pace among core assets types

 

Sales of retail commercial real estate outperformed the core asset types as sales rose 171% to $274 million in the first quarter of 2024. Sales rose in the unincorporated areas of Miami-Dade, Aventura, Hialeah, Miami Springs, Surfside, and Sweetwater.

Small stores accounted for 79% of retail CRE transactions. Acquisitions of community/shopping centers accounted for a higher share of the market at 8% while the share of restaurants/cafeterias normalized to a 3% share after rising during 2020-2021 to 9% of the market.

 

Industrial sales volume rose 19% in 2024 Q1

 

Sales of industrial properties in Miami-Dade County in the first quarter rose 19% to $255 million in the first quarter of 2024, a reversal of the 45% decline in the first quarter in 2023. Sales rose in the major industrial areas of Medley, Doral, Sweetwater, and the more residential municipalities of Opa-locka and Miami Gardens.

 

Industrial buildings of up to 10,000 square feet (sf) accounted for 68% of industrial building sales in the first quarter of 2024. Buildings with over 10,000 sf to 25,000 sf accounted for a bigger share of sales, at 18%.

 

Office commercial sales rose at an annual pace of 6%

 

Office sales rose 6% in the first quarter of 2024 to $204 million, a reversal from the 33% decline one year ago. The largest increases in office sales volume were in Coral Gables, Miami, Miami Beach, Doral, Miami Lakes, and Hialeah.

Office buildings built in 2000-2009 (“Class B”) and in 1980-1989 (“Class C”) have increasingly accounted for a larger share of the sales transactions since 2020, accounting for 67% of closed sales in 2024 Q1.

 

 

Multifamily sales fell 42% but sales rose in the unincorporated areas

 

Acquisitions of multifamily buildings with 5 or more units declined 42% year-over-year to $144 million in the first quarter of 2024 amid slowing rent growth. However, the combined unincorporated areas, Hialeah, and Coral Gables saw higher sales volume compared to one year ago.

Miami remains as the multifamily magnet. The median sales price in Miami in 2024 rose to $246,528/unit, up 24% compared to all transactions in 2023. Across the county, the median multifamily sales price fell to $191,667, down 8%. Most buildings that sold were built before 1980 (“Class C”).

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