Gay Cororaton, Chief Economist
A decline in mortgage rates, the increase in state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, and the implementation of a new condo law (HB 913) that eases the financial burden for condo owners and prospective buyers underpin a projected rebound in home sales in 2026.
Download the 2025-2026 Southeast Florida Housing Onlook (June 2025 Update) HERE.
MIAMI Realtors® forecasts mortgage rates to decline to 6.4% by end of 2025 and 5.8% by end of 2026. MIAMI Realtors® expects that the new Fed Chair will place more weight on accelerating economic growth and reinvigorating the real estate market than quickly returning inflation to 2%.
As mortgage rates decline, the monthly mortgage payment on single-family purchased at the median sales price with a 10% downpayment declines by $100 per month from $3,500 in 2025 to $3,400 in 2026. The income needed to pay a mortgage affordably (mortgage is no more than 20% of income) decreases from $168,000 in 2025 to $163,200 in 2026. With a lower mortgage payment, the number of renter households able to afford a home increases from 139,900 renter households to 164,500 households, or an increase of about 24,639 households who are able to afford a home.
The increase in state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap will benefit households in areas with high property values where the current property taxes are over $10,000. In the city of Miami with a millage rate of 20.03 and a median sales price of $778,000 (as of May 2025), the property tax is $15,560 ( which is higher than the previous cap of $10,000), which increases the incentive to itemize deductions. The increase in the state and local income deductions from $10,000 to $40,000 saves households about $3,600 per year at the current tax rate of 12% for households with income of $23,850 to $96,950.
In the condominium market, HB 913 (enacted in June 2025) eases the financial burden for condominium owners. The new law allows associations to use lines of credit to satisfy reserve obligations if a majority of owners approve, allows a temporary pause in reserve funding for two years immediately following a milestone inspection, and increases the replacement cost of repairs required to be reserved and considered in the Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) from $10,000 to $25,000. The new law requires that the funding method and related details for SIRS be disclosed to unit owners and potential buyers and extends the time from 3 to 7 days prospective buyers have to review financial information.
2025-2026 Housing Outlook Forecasts (June 2025 Update)
MIAMI Realtors® expects that single-family sales will decline 8.1% in 2025 but rebound 5.6% in 2026.
In the condominium/townhomes market, MIAMI Realtors® expects sales to decline 24.5% in 2025 based on year-to-date sales. However, the decline will moderate in 2026 as HB 913 provides relief to condominium owners.
MIAMI Realtors® expect single-family home prices to broadly increase at a modest pace of 2% by end of 2025 and at a faster pace of 4% by end of 2026 as sales recover due to a decline in mortgage rates.
In the condominium/townhomes market, the median sales prices are likely to decline 1% in 2025 and stabilize in 2026.
MIAMI Realtors® forecasts the single-family market to remain a balanced market with 6.6 months’ supply of inventory at the end of 2025 and 6.4 months’ supply at the end of 2026.
In the condominium/townhomes market, MIAMI Realtors® forecasts active inventory to increase from 10 months’ supply at the end of 2025 and to 12 months’ supply at the end of 2026.
