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Economic Insights

Miami Sees Double-Digit Spike in Domestic Migration; New York, California, and Texas Lead Inflows

Economic Insights
Economic Insights from the MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist

By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist

 

South Florida continues to see strong out-of-state migration in 2026 Q1 compared to one year, based on driver license exchanges from out-of-state movers, according to Miami Association of REALTORS® (MIAMI) analysis of Florida Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles data. New residents must exchange their out-of-state license for a Florida driver’s license within 30 days after establishing residency to drive on Florida’s roads.

 

Download the 2026 Q1 South Florida Driver License Exchange Report HERE.

 

Out-of-state driver license exchanges rose 24% in 2026 Q1 from one year ago in South Florida

 

In 2026 Q1, out-of-state driver license exchanges in the South Florida counties rose 24% from one year ago, with 19, 918 driver license exchanges overall.

 

In Miami-Dade County, driver license exchanges rose 32% overall, with 6,231 driver license exchanges. Driver license exchanges increased at spectacular rates from one year ago in all the top 10 largest feeder states: New York (+14%), California (+48%), Texas (+50%), New Jersey (+22%), Georgia (+68%), Illinois (+5%), Massachusetts (+27%), Pennsylvania (+34%), North Carolina (+56%), and Virgina (+22%).

 

In Broward County, driver license exchanges rose 33%, with 5,231 driver license exchanges. Driver license exchanges also rose at phenomenal rates in the top 10 states of origin: New York (+30%), New Jersey (+23%), California (+36%), Texas (+50%), Georgia (+39%), Illinois (), Pennsylvania (), Massachusetts (+51%), Virginia (+17%), and Ohio (+63%)

 

In Palm Beach County, driver license exchanges rose 19%, with 6,241 driver license exchanges, the highest among the five counties. Driver license exchanges also rose in all the top 10 states of origin: New York (+14%), New Jersey (+19%), California (+4%), Pennsylvania (+15%), Massachusetts (+12%), Connecticut (+32%), Maryland (+55%), Texas (+9%), Illinois (+13%), and Georgia (+28%).

 

In Martin County, driver license exchanges were essentially unchanged, with 602 driver license exchanges.

In St. Lucie County, driver license exchanges rose 7%, with 1,608 driver license exchanges.

 

Out-of-state migration is poised to continue rising in 2026-2027 as New York, California, and Washington eye higher income and wealth taxes. In New York City, Mayor Mamdani proposed to hike the city’s top tax rate from 3.9% to 5.9%. If approved, combined with the state rates, the income of New York City’s wealthiest would be subject to a tax of almost 17%, the highest in the country. In the state of California, a proposal to impose a one-time 5% asset tax on individuals with a net worth of over $1 billion is set to face a voter referendum in November 2026. In California, the top marginal tax rate is 13.3% and there is a 1% surcharge on income exceeding $1 million. The state of Washington just passed a 9.9% income tax on households earning above $1 million, effective January 2028.

 

But international driver license exchanges decreased 47% due to tighter immigration policies

 

However, international driver license exchanges decreased 47% from one year ago, with 6,121 driver license exchanges.

Tighter immigration policies, particularly the end of the CHNV (Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela) humanitarian admissions program in 2024 appear to be the primary reason for the decline, with driver license exchanges sharply down from these countries. For example. in Miami-Dade County, driver license exchanges from Cuban nationals in the first quarter of 2023 soared to 6,481, but there were only 212 driver license exchanges in 2026 Q1.In Broward County, there were 1,312 driver license exchanges from Haiti nationals in 2024 Q1 but that dwindled to 48 driver license exchanges in 2026 Q1. In Palm Beach County, there were 713 driver license exchanges from Haiti nationals in 2024 Q1, but that also collapsed to just 36 driver license exchanges in 2026 Q1.

 

Across the five South Florida counties, the top 10 largest countries of origin, by rank are: Colombia, Brazil, Canada, Cuba, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Peru.

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