By MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist Gay Cororaton
Key Takeaways
- A continuing decline in mortgage rates to 5.8% by the end of 2026 and 5.7% by the end of 2027, robust wage growth, and an uptick in migration will underpin the recovery of home sales in 2026 and 2027.
- Southeast Florida’s single-family home sales will rebound by 5% in 2026 and 2027 while the decline in condominium/townhome sales will continue to moderate.
- Single-family median sales prices will continue to appreciate with a projected increase of 4% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027.
Download the 2025-2027 Southeast Florida Housing Outlook (December 2025 Update) HERE.
Mortgage rates poised to hit 5.8% by the end of 2026 and 5.7% by the end of 2027
MIAMI Realtors® expects auspicious conditions in 2026 and 2027 that will spark a turn-around in home sales after four years of decline: a continuing decline in mortgage rates, incomes rising at a faster pace than prices, and an acceleration in talent and wealth migration, particularly from New York.
MIAMI Realtors® forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rates to end at 6.2% in 2025 and to further fall to 5.8% at the end of 2026 and to 5.7% at the end of 2027. This projection is based on the Federal Open Market Committee December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections that indicates one 0.25% rate cut in 2026 and one 0.25% rate cut in 2027 as the Fed continues to bring down inflation to 2%.
MIAMI Realtors® expects sustained employment growth in Southeast Floria and double-digit wage growth in the Miami Metro Area, further improving affordability conditions. Average real wages are projected to increase at a remarkable 9.6% as of the end of 2025, given the latest data as of August 2025, further accelerating to 9.9% in 2026 and 10.3% in 2027. Driving this high wage growth is the growth in higher-paying jobs such as health care, professional and technical services, and financial services.
Migration from New York could potentially increase in 2026 as the tax differential between New York and Florida widens under Mayor-elect Mamdani. Currently, New York City’s general business corporation tax is at 4.875% to 7.25%, which Mamdani has pledged to raise to 11.5% to match New Jersey’s. In Florida, the corporate tax rate is 5.5%. The New York state income tax rate ranges from 4.75% to 10.9% and a flat 3.9% New York City income tax. Mamdani’s agenda calls for a 2 percent New York City Income Tax for anyone making more than $1 million a year, or a top tax rate of 16.8%, impacting 34,000 millionaires.
Southeast Florida’s single-family home sales will rebound by 5% in 2026 and 2027
MIAMI Realtors® projects single-family home sales to increase 4.9% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027 in Southeast Florida, following a 4-year decline. In the condominium/townhome market, sales will continue to decline to a moderate pace of -5.3% in 2026 and to slightly pick up 0.2% in 2027, with condominium owners getting some financial relief from recently passed regulation and strong demand from global buyers.
In the condominium market, the decline in home sales will continue to moderate from -20.3% in 2022 to -8.1% in 2025, -5.3% in 2026, with sales poised to make a turnaround of 0.2% in 2027. Underpinning the stabilization of the condominium market is the effect of HB 913 passed in June 2025 that is aimed at providing some financial relief for condo owners. This law allows associations to use lines of credit to fund reserves, increases the minimum expense for reserve fund budgeting from $10,000 to $25,000, and allows associations that have completed the required milestone inspection to delay the structural integrity reserve study for the two consecutive budget years following a milestone inspection.
Condominium buildings less than 25 years old have been less impacted by rising mortgage rates and the financial impact of compliance to new condo safety regulations. According to MIAMI REALTORS® analysis of MLS sales from January – September, year-to-date sales of units in newer condos were up 5% year-over-year in 2025 compared to the 10% decline in condo units 25 years and older.
Global buyers will continue to support the demand for luxury condominium units. According to the MIAMI Realtors® November 2025 New Construction Global Report, foreign buyers accounted for 52% of the 6,931 new units sold, with Latin American buyers accounting for 86% of international buyers coming from 73 countries.
Single-family median sales prices will appreciate 3.4% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027
With the rebound in demand, MIAMI Realtors® projects the median sales price in Southeast Florida to increase 3.4% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027.
Home prices in the Miami Metro Area have held up better compared to other major Florida metropolitan areas where price have fallen. As of October 2025, overall median sales prices were unchanged from one year ago in the Miami Metro Area while prices declined in all other major metro areas. For 2026, Realtor.com projects the median sales prices to decline across several Florida metro areas, except for the Miami Metro Area (1.1%): Orlando (-1.6%), Tampa (-3.6%), Jacksonville (-1.4%), Cape Coral (-10.2%), Lakeland (-0.2%), Palm Bay (-1.0%), and Nort Port (-8.9%).
In the single-family market, MIAMI Realtors® projects median sales prices to increase 2.8% by the end of 2026 and 3.5% by the end of 2027. Prices will start to firm up as the uptick in demand drives down active inventory to an equivalent of 5.7 months’ supply in 2025, 4.9 months’ supply in 2026, and 4.2 months’ supply in 2027.
In the condominium/townhomes market, the pace of price decline will moderate from -4.1% in 2025 to -0.5% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. Prices will likely continue to decline in 2026 due to the buildup in active inventory at the end of 2025 to 12.9 months’ supply. Median sales prices could rise by 1.2% in 2027 as active inventory declines to 11.6 months’ supply at the end of 2026 and 9.6 months’ supply at the end of 2027 as sales outpace new listings.
The median sales price of condos/townhomes will also shift up due to the sales mix of new and old condos. According to MIAMI Realtors® analysis of MLS sales, the median sales price on units in condominium buildings less than 25 years during January – September 2025 rose to $2.0 million, 75% higher than in the prior year. Meanwhile, the median sales price of units in older condominium buildings fell to $260,000, down 7% from one year ago.
Demand and supply conditions in the million-dollar market portend robust transactions activity in 2026 and 2027.
On the demand side, the potential acceleration in migration from New York movers (likely millionaires and business owners seeking to avoid higher taxes) and from California (likely tech workers with above the median wage) will drive up demand for million-dollar homes.
On the supply side, a significant amount of active inventory is priced at $1 million and over. In Miami-Dade County, 38% of active listings as of the end of October were million-dollar listings; in Palm Beach County, 37%; in Martin County 32%; and in Broward County, 28%. The active inventory of million-dollar homes is equivalent to 19 months’ supply in Miami-Dade County and Broward County, 22 months’ supply in Martin County, and 13 months’ supply in Palm Beach County.
According to MIAMI Realtors® analysis of MLS sales for the period January-October 2025, the price threshold for a luxury single-family home (top 5% of sales) in Miami-Dade County is $3.5 million while the uber luxury price threshold (top 1%) is $11.1 million. Back in 2019, the price threshold for a luxury home was $1.3 million, and $3.5 million for an uber-luxury home.
