By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist
The latest US Census Bureau’s Census of Employment and Wages reported 309 of 360 counties with positive job growth in establishments where workers are covered by unemployment insurance.
Among the 360 largest counties by population, Miami-Dade County was the 4th largest job creator, with 31,300 jobs created during the period September 2022-September 2023. Broward County, with 18,400 jobs created, was #10th, while Palm Beach County, with 13,400 jobs, ranked 19th.
Jobs rose at faster pace than the national rate (1.5%) in the four counties: Miami-Dade (2.6%), Broward (2.2%), Palm Beach (2.1%), and St. Lucie (2.8%).
Harris County, Texas saw the largest job gains (63,800), followed by Maricopa, Arizona (43,700), and Kings, New York (36,800).
While Southeast Florida saw strong job gains, several California counties shed jobs, with the largest job losses in Los Angeles (-40,500), San Francisco (-19,300), San Mateo (-9.800), San Bernardino (-8.400), and Santa Clara (-4,500).
Southeast Florida’s strong job growth continues to attract people and businesses to move to the area. MIAMI’s latest research shows that out-of-state migration remains elevated, based on driver license exchanges from out-of-state movers (73,068 license exchanges), up 12.7% in 2021 compared to 2019 levels. The top out-of-state movers are from New York, California, and New Jersey.[1]
With elevated levels of out-of-state migration into Southeast Florida and its strong economy that has attracted business expansions and relocations, the share of million-dollar homes to total sales has steadily climbed since 2019. In 2023, the share of million-dollar homes to total single-family sales listed on the MIAMI MLS rose to 17% in 2023 (6% in 2019); for condos/townhomes, the share rose to 9% (5% in 2019). In our 2023 Luxury Market Report[2], we reported that a single-family luxury home, which we defined as the 95% percentile of home prices, was a home that was at least $2.3 million, while a condominium/townhome was at least $1.6 million.
The strong job growth and sustained migration augurs well for a recovery in housing sales in 2024 of below 10% and sustained price appreciation of about 5%.[3]
[1] Southeast Florida Sees Sustained Migration in 2023 with Driver License Exchanges up 8% – MIAMI REALTORS®
[2] Single-Family Luxury Home Sales Price Rose to at Least $2.3M in 2023, According to MIAMI Luxury Report – MIAMI REALTORS®
[3] Southeast Florida 2024 Outlook: Sales Rebound and Sustained Price Appreciation – MIAMI REALTORS®
