By Gay Cororaton, MIAMI REALTORS Chief Economist
Key Takeaways:
- Single-family home prices have increased sharply in Miami-Dade County since the pandemic, up 77% as of August 2025 compared to 2019, outpacing the wage growth of 29%.
- Miami-Dade’s robust price appreciation is sustainable because underwriting conditions today are more stringent today than prior to the Great Recession, marked by a declining mortgage-to-GDP ratio and low delinquency rates.
- Miami-Dade’s robust price appreciation is fueled by solid job growth that has outpaced the nation, elevated out-of-state migration, rising market share of luxury home buyers who tend to pay all cash, and the mortgage rate lock-in effect that curtailed new listings in 2022-2023.
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Miami-Dade County’s home prices have been rising on a sustained basis year-over-year nearly every month since December 2011, a remarkable 14-year run.
Prices rose sharply in the wake of the COVID-pandemic in 2020. As of August, the median single-family sales price in Miami-Dade County was 77% higher than in August 2019, outpacing the national increase of 52%.
Meanwhile, the average weekly wage in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metropolitan Area and across the nation overall increased at a slower pace of 29% over the period August 2019 through August 2025.
Is this robust price appreciation that is outpacing wage growth indicative of future declines? We lay out five reasons to show that the price appreciation has been due to demand and supply fundamentals rather than by speculative activity and easy credit conditions that characterized the housing bubble that precipitated the Great Recession.
Reason #1: Underwriting standards are tighter compared to pre-Great Recession standards.
Lending standards and credit conditions are tighter today compared to the runup prior to the Great Recession.
Residential mortgage liabilities peaked to over 70% of GDP in 2009, and except for a spike in 2020, the share of residential mortgages to GDP has been declining since the Great Recession to currently 44.5%.
The delinquency rate on single-family residential mortgages held by domestic commercial banks peaked at 12% during the Great Recession and has trended down except for a small upturn during the COVOD pandemic but is currently at 1.8%.
The median FICO score among large bank mortgage originations as of the first quarter of 2025 is 77 (“very good” or “excellent”).
Reason #2: Job growth in the Miami Metro Area has outpaced the nation especially in higher-paying industries.
Over the six-year period from August 2019 through August 2025, the Miami MSA saw a cumulative 9.5% increase in non-farm employment compared to 5.5% nationally.
Employment in higher-paying jobs all rose at a stronger pace in Miami-Dade County than nationally. Employment in the financial activities industry (finance, real estate, rental, and insurance) rose 18% compared to 5% nationally. Employment in the professional and business services industry rose 14% in Miami-Dade compared to 5% nationally. Employment in the information services industry rose 6% in Miami-Dade compared to 2% nationally.
Reason #3: Out-of-state migration accelerated from pre-pandemic levels.
The total dollar volume of income that flowed into Miami-Dade County from people who moved to the county rose from $3.8 billion in 2019 to $4.5 billion in 2020, peaking to $10.4 billion in 2021 although moderating but remaining elevated to $8.4 billion in 2022, according to MIAMI analysis of IRS migration data compiled from tax filers.
Over the period 2020 Q1-2024 Q1, the Miami Metro Area gained a net of 24,300 jobs from other states, with the largest net inflows from the states of New York (+17,491), New Jersey (+6,209), and California (+4,707).
Driver license exchanges from out-of-state movers, an indicator of out-of-state migration, remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, 22% higher than the level in the first half of 2019 and 1% higher from the same period one year ago. Driver license exchanges from California are up 66% and from New York up 33% compared to 2019.
Reason #4: Luxury buyers continue to gain market share and push up luxury home prices.
Year-to-date through August, million-dollar home sales accounted for 24% of single-family sales, up from 8% during the same period in 2019.
Million-dollar buyers tend to pay all-cash, rather than obtain a mortgage. Year-to-date through August, 46% of million-dollar homes purchased in Miami-Dade County were all-cash, compared to 25% all-cash sales share for all single-family home sales.
The luxury market share is not only rising, but luxury buyers are buying at higher price points as well. Based on January-August 2025 sales on the MIAMI MLS , the threshold for a single-family luxury home ( 95th percentile) in Miami-Dade County rose to $3.5 million, up from $3.2 million one year ago and $1.4 million in 2019. The “ultra-luxury” threshold price (99th percentile) rose to $10.7 million, up from $10 million one year ago and $3.5 million in 2019.
Reason #5: As mortgage rates rose in 2022-2023, the mortgage rate lock-in effect depressed new listings (supply) that accelerated price growth.
As the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times by a cumulative 525 basis points in 2022-2023, the effect was a pullback in new listings as homeowners who had locked in or refinanced their mortgages had no financial incentive to move/sell and to obtain a higher mortgage (called the rate lock-in effect).
Year-to-date through August, new listings fell 4% in 2022 and dived 23% over the same period in 2023. With fewer new listings, the median single-family sales price rose 10% in August 2022 and accelerated to 13% in August 2023.
In conclusion:
Miami-Dade County’s robust price appreciation has reflected underlying demand and supply fundamentals, not speculative activity that characterizes unsustainable growth such as prior to the Great Recession. These underlying fundamentals are tighter access to credit, robust job growth, elevated migration, wealth migration and more luxury home buyers, and the mortgage rate lock-in effect that curtailed new listings in 2022-2023. Any price movement is likely to depend on these fundamental factors.
MIAMI Realtors® September 2025 Outlook projects a modest increase of 3.4% of the median single-family sales price in 2026 based on the scenario that mortgage rates will stabilize at 6%. See Southeast Florida Home Sales to Rebound in 2026 as Mortgage Rates Hit 6% – MIAMI REALTORS®
