By Gay Cororaton, Chief Economist, MIAMI Realtors®
Key Takeaways
- Mortgage rates are likely to stabilize at 6% in 2026 from 6.7% in 2025.
- Single-family sales are likely to rebound 5% in 2026 while single-family home sales prices will increase at stronger pace of 3.4% as inventory tightens to 5.1 months’ supply.
- The million-dollar market segment will continue to see rising sales and remain a buyer’s market.
Download the 2025-2026 Southeast Florida Housing Outlook (September 2025 Update) HERE.
Southeast Florida’s home sales are poised to rebound in 2026 following the Fed’s rate cut in 2025, with two more rate cuts likely in 2025 and another rate cut in 2026. MIAMI Realtors® expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to decline to an average of 6% in 2026 from 6.6% in 2025.
With mortgage rates declining in 2026, Southeast Florida’s single-family home sales are likely to rebound 5% in 2026, a reversal of the decline in the past four years.
The rebound in sales will support a stronger price appreciation in 2026, with single-family sales prices in Southeast Florida projected to increase by 3.4%.
Home prices could rise at a faster pace in areas where home prices are more affordable and inventory is tighter such as in Hialeah, Homestead, Miami Gardens, and Cutler Bay in Miami-Dade County; Plantation and Sunrise in Broward County; Lake Worth and Royal Palm Beach in Palm Beach County; Hobe Sound in Martin County, and Fort Pierce in St. Lucie County.6
In the condominium/townhomes market, prices are still likely to continue to tick down given the elevated level of inventory, but at a slower rate of decline compared to past years. In the condominium market, active inventory is projected to slightly decrease to 12 months’ supply in 2026 from 13 months’ supply in 2025.
The million-dollar and luxury market will continue to be a strong driver of the housing recovery in 2026 underpinned by Southeast Florida’s continuing shift in its industrial base towards the higher-paying and highly skilled technology, finance, and healthcare industries.
The million-dollar market is likely to continue to be a buyer’s market. With the buildup in inventory to about 12 months’ supply, buyers have been able to negotiate for bigger discounts compared to the overall market price discount. As of July, the median buyer discount for million-dollar single-family sales in Miami-Dade County and Palm Beach County was typically 10%, up from 3% in 2021. The current discount of 10% is in line with the normal price discount in past years.
MIAMI Realtors® expects Southeast Florida’s strong job growth and domestic migration to be sustained in 2026.
Miami-Dade County is the area’s powerhouse, making up about 4 in 10 employed workers. As mortgage rates decline, spurring economic activity, MIAI Realtors® expects employment growth to increase to 2.0%.
The elimination of Florida’s business rent tax that becomes effective on October 1, 2025 is expected to spur commercial activity and job growth, savings businesses $2.5 billion in taxes annually.12
Out-of-state migration into Miami-Dade County remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, with higher levels of migration, according to MIAMI Realtors® analysis of driver license exchanges data. New York, New Jersey, California, Illinois, and Texas are the top origins of out-of-state movers. 13 One headwind that can increase migration from New York to South Florida in 2026 is the outcome of the New York City mayoral elections.14
