By Gay Cororaton, Chief Economist
Home prices in the South Florida counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Martin continue to outpace the national trend in May 2023 as the area continues to experience tight housing conditions with demand driven by strong job growth and sustained migration.
Miami-Dade: Sustained Price Appreciation in Single-family Market Since December 2011
Home prices in Miami-Dade County continue to hold up strongly and to outperform the nation. The median single-family home price has been rising year-over-year for over 11 years since December 2011, even during the pandemic and even with mortgage rates more than doubling from one year ago. The median single-family home price rose 7.8% year-over-year to $620,000 while condo/townhome prices were unchanged from one year ago, at $415,000. The median Nationally, single-family home prices were down (-3.4%) while condo/townhome prices were essentially unchanged.
While inventory has been increasing, the county is still a seller’s market, with 3.3 months’ supply. Total active listings of single-family homes, condos/townhomes are up nearly 20% from one year ago, but active listings are still significantly down 59% from the level in May 2019.
Price continue to hold up relatively strongly in Miami-Dade due to the area’s strong job growth and sustained migration. Total employment (not seasonally adjusted) in the county was up 3.2% year-over-year as of April 2023 compared to 2% nationally.
Driver license exchange data from the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles show 19,231 out-of-state and out-of-country license exchanges in Miami-Dade during 2023 Q1 compared to just 13,267 in 2022 Q1[1].
Broward: More Affordable Condo/Townhome Prices Rose at Strongest Pace
In May 2023, Broward County had the highest year-over-year pace of price appreciation in the condo/townhome market. The median condo/townhome sales price rose 6.5% year-over-year to $270,000 compared to Miami-Dade (0%), Palm Beach (2.4%), and Martin (5.2%).
Broward County has the most affordable condo/townhome prices compared to Miami-Dade ($415,000), Palm Beach (315,000), and Martin ($305,000), and this is likely driving the demand for condo/townhomes in this market. Condo/townhomes sales rose at the strongest monthly pace of 16% compared to Miami-Dade (12%), Palm Beach (12%), and Martin (-20%).
Single-family home prices fell slightly by 0.2%. However, I don’t’ expect single-family home prices to continue falling because of very tight supply conditions. In fact, the county has the lowest months’ supply at 2.6 months compared to Miami-Dade (3.3), Palm Beach (3.0), and Martin (2.9).
Moreover, Broward County has strong demand fundamentals arising from migration forces and solid job growth. According to IRS migration data, a third of households who moved out from Miami-Dade in 2021 went to Broward[2].
Total employment rose 3.2% y/y in April, equivalent to 32,334 workers, a tad higher than the annual employment growth in Miami-Dade (2.7%) and Palm Beach (2.4%) , though more modest than Martin (3.7%).
Palm Beach: Sustained Price Appreciation with Smallest Decline in Closed Sales
In May 2023, both the median single-family and condo/townhome sales prices rose in Palm Beach County . The median single-family home price rose 1.2% year-over-year to $622,500, while the median condo/townhome median sales price rose 2.4% to $315,000.
Prices rose amid sustained demand, with the county experiencing the smallest decline in closed sales compared to one year ago, at -6%, compared to Miami-Dade (-25%), Broward (-14%), and Martin (-8%).
Housing demand is strong, in part driven by retirees, second homebuyers, and employment rising 2.7% year-over-year as of April, although this is more modest than that of Miami-Dade (2.7%), Broward (3.2%), and Martin (3.7%).
Martin: Strongest Pace of Increase in Single-family Prices in Part Driven by Cash Buyers
Martin County’s single-family home price rose 8.1% year-over-year to $632,000, the strongest pace compared to Miami-Dade (7.8%), Broward (-0.2%), Palm Beach (1.2%). Condo/townhome prices rose 5.2%.
Martin County also had a smaller decline in closed sales of single-family and condo/townhomes, at -8% compared to Miami-Dade (-25%) and Broward (-14%), although slightly higher than that of Palm Beach(-6%).
While the area’s small market could make home prices and sales volatile, the higher price appreciation and slower decline in sales appear to indicate that Martin County had a stronger market in May compared to one year ago.
Month’s supply was at 2.9 months. Total active listings were up nearly 57% from one year ago, though 57% below the pre-pandemic level.
Strong job growth and a high share of cash buyers who are less sensitive to higher mortgage rates seem to be the factors why this market is holding up to economic headwinds.
Total employment (not seasonally adjusted) in Martin County rose 3.7% year-over-year as of April 2023, the fastest pace compared to Miami-Dade (2.7%), Broward (3.2%), and Palm Beach (2.4%) and compared to 2% nationally.
Cash buyers of single-family/ condo/townhomes made up 55% as of May 2023 compared to Miami-Dade (40.9%), Broward (40.6%), and Palm Beach (52%).
[1] Out-of-State Driver License Exchanges Still Surging in South Florida in 1Q 2023 vs. Pre-Pandemic Average – MIAMI REALTORS®
[2] In-Migration Boosted South Florida Household Income by $16 Billion in 2021 – MIAMI REALTORS®
